On the 13th, the central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation of 60 billion yuan, with a net investment of 60 billion yuan a day. Market participants said that the central bank's continuous implementation of net investment, strong response to tax factors and other factors, will help stabilize market expectations, the capital fabrics have tightened in the second half of the month, but the possibility of continued large fluctuations is still small.
Marginal tightening of funds
On the 13th, the central bank implemented a net liquidity for the second consecutive day. It launched a 30-billion-day period and a 30-billion-day 28-day reverse repurchase. As no central bank liquidity instruments expired, all net deliveries were realized. The central bank announced that the move was to influence the taxation period and other factors to maintain a reasonable and stable liquidity of the banking system.
In mid-term, the impact of tax factors on liquidity has gradually increased. In March, the main tax collection period ended on the 15th. From past experience, when the tax settlement and storage into the warehouse has a greater impact on liquidity, it is mainly on the 15th and two or three working days before and after. In this context, the central bank resumed open market operations at the beginning of this week and continuously implemented net funding.
From the perspective of the money market, the current market capital is still stable, but the interest rate of funds has rebounded at a low level, and the demand for inter-season funds has gradually increased.
On the 13th, in the inter-bank bond pledged repo, the interest rates of all maturities rose across the board, with the weighted average interest rate of overnight repo rising 6BP to 2.64%; the representative 7-day repo rate was 8BP to 2.91%; medium term The 14-day and 21-day varieties rose by 25BP and 19BP respectively; the longer-term one-month repo rate was steady at 4.95%, and the two-month variety rose slightly to 4.93%. In addition, the Shibor within one month of the day also appeared on the upside, Shibor rose 5BP to 2.64% overnight, and Shibor increased 4BP to 4.41% in the first quarter.
Traders said that the market liquidity in the early trading yesterday was slightly tightened. The short-term capital was not much, and the price was higher. However, the institutions in the afternoon were gradually closing their positions and the funds were tightly balanced.
The second half of the month is based on tight balance
Financial tax collection, statutory deposit reserve payments and quarterly regulatory assessments will be the main factors affecting the liquidity trend in the second half of March. The tax period and reserve contributions make the short-term funds face marginal tightening pressure, but the market is mainly concerned with the impact of regulatory assessments. The final performance of the funds depends on how the central bank hedges these factors.
In the face of tax disturbances, the actions of the central bank this month were timely and effective. At the beginning of this week, there was no obvious tightening in the market funds, but the central bank has restarted the open market operation of the open market, and it is expected to continue in the next few days; through continuous efforts to carry out reverse repurchase operations with greater intensity, the central bank It can effectively stabilize the influence of tax factors. After all, March is not a big tax month. "It is expected that by the 15th, the central bank will further increase its operational intensity. The smooth flow of funds and the regular payment on the 15th are a high probability event." Some traders said.
Since March, cross-season capital demand has gradually increased, and cross-season fund interest rates have continued to rise, indicating that the market is still worried about the risk of liquidity fluctuations at the end of the quarter. The data shows that since March 2, the one-month Shibor that can be mixed across the season has been rising for 8 consecutive days. Previously, some seller analysts suggested that the real test of the funds after the Spring Festival is at the end of the season. Although the funds are still loose before and after the Spring Festival, the impact of the regulatory assessment should not be taken lightly.
Some agencies are worried that the seasonal liquidity friction caused by increasingly complex assessment indicators will increase unabated. The extreme structural tensions in the money market at the end of 2017 are the lessons of the past.
"The other thing to be wary of is that due to the looseness of liquidity around the Spring Festival, some institutions have re-increased their operating leverage, which is contrary to the regulatory orientation and may trigger liquidity policies to re-correct." Some traders said.
However, many people believe that maintaining a reasonable and stable liquidity and moderate neutrality is a clear policy orientation, which means that liquidity operations will not continue to be loose or tight, and liquidity fluctuations may be triggered by multiple factors at the end of the season. At the time of risk, the central bank will carry out regulation and control at a high probability. In the second half of the month, the capital fabrics will be dominated by tight balance.
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