On Monday, as the 10-year US Treasury yield approached the 3% mark, the US dollar index once broke the 91 mark, the gold and silver prices fell, and the major non-US currencies such as the euro, the yen and the pound retreated. The US Treasury Secretary’s remarks about relaxing the sanctions against Russia and the United States also caused a stir in the market.
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· On Monday (April 23), gold futures closed down 0.82% at $1326.6 per ounce; silver futures closed down 2.98% at $16.60 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 3%, which makes investors rush to buy dollars, and the price of gold and silver falls. The U.S. Treasury’s remarks about relaxing the sanctions against RUSAL also caused a stir in the market. During the period, aluminum fell by 10%, and other metals also suffered heavy losses, and gold and silver lost support.
· US oil futures closed up 1.26% to $68.92/barrel; oil futures closed up 1.78% to $75.02/barrel. Iranian Oil Minister Zanaga Nene said in a speech that if oil prices can maintain the current upward trend, it is not necessary to extend the production reduction agreement. The market now expects the US to restart Iranian sanctions in May. In addition, the situation in the Middle East is showing signs of warming. Foreign media said that the Hussein militia in Yemen fired two ballistic missiles at the Saudi Aramco facility in Jazan, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, although Saudi officials said the missiles were intercepted. But it has caused market concerns. According to Yemen’s Al-Masirah TV station, the leader of the Houthi armed group died in a coalition air strike led by Saudi Arabia.
· The US dollar index closed up 0.67% at 90.92. US bond yields and US economic data jointly boosted the US dollar. The market further weakened the US dollar, which may lead to squeeze of short positions. The euro/dollar closed down 0.65% to 1.2206. The euro zone's initial manufacturing PMI fell to a 14-month low in April; USD/JPY rose 1% to close at 108.70; GBP/USD closed down 0.44% to 1.3938. In addition to investors' cautious outlook on the rate hike in May, the recent Brexit news is not very profitable. There is still no sign of a breakthrough in the Irish border issue. The UK GDP data will be released later this week. The foreign exchange market is The pound is further falling to prepare.
Precious metals: the three major bad-selling gold fell 1330 Lun aluminum plummeted the market
On Monday (April 23), as the US 10-year bond yields pushed to the 3% mark, the US dollar index continued to climb once to break through the 91 mark. The price of gold and silver fell, and spot gold fell below the support of 1330, testing the 1320 mark. . In addition, the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s remarks about relaxing the sanctions against RUSAL also caused a sharp upturn in the market. During the period, aluminum fell by 10%, and other metals also suffered heavy pressure. At the close, COMEX gold futures contract price fell 0.82% to 1326.6 US dollars / ounce; silver futures main contract price fell 2.98% to 16.60 US dollars / ounce.
Since entering April, in the context of rising inflation expectations, investors have been selling US Treasury bonds to boost US Treasury yields. The increase in inflation expectations may prompt the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes. More and more traders have begun to predict that the Fed will raise interest rates four times in 2018, instead of three times as suggested by monetary policymakers.
As US bond yields approach 3%, investors are rushing to buy dollars. At the same time, the US economic data released overnight showed a brilliant performance, which also boosted the formation of the US dollar, thus suppressing the price of gold and silver. In the United States, the total number of existing home sales in March was 5.6 million, which was better than expected. In the United States, the initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in April was 56.5, a record high since September 2014.
Analysts pointed out that another reason for the decline in gold and silver yesterday was the collapse of aluminum prices. The U.S. Treasury said on Monday that if Rusal’s major shareholder, Russian oligarch Oleg deripaska, gives up control, the US may loosen its sanctions against RUSAL. US Finance Minister Nuchin said in a statement that the US government’s target is not to rely on the laborers of RUSAL and its subsidiaries. A general mandate has been issued, and the company can continue to trade with RUSAL until October 23. . After the announcement, LME aluminum short-term flashed more than 5%, in just 10 minutes, fell more than 140 US dollars / ton, then the decline expanded to nearly 10%, fell below the 2,300 US dollar mark, refreshed daily to 2237 US dollars / ton, close It fell 7% to $2,295/ton, the biggest one-day drop since April 2010. Lun Nickel, Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai Nickel all fell.
In addition, palladium plunged more than 5% on Monday, as the US Treasury previously said that it allowed US companies and individuals to postpone their business with RUSAL on October 23, which eased the US or the world's largest palladium producer Norry. Concerns about the sanctions imposed by Luke Nickel.
Crude oil: US or restart Iran sanctions, the situation in the Middle East is heating up again, oil prices continue to rise
Oil prices continued to rise on Monday, WTI crude oil once broke the $69/barrel mark, and Brent crude oil once broke the $75/barrel mark. Although the Iranian oil captain’s speech has delayed the expected reduction in production, the United States is likely to restart Iran’s sanctions in May, and the situation in the Middle East is showing signs of warming, which has allowed the oil price rebound to continue, but the dollar’s ​​rise still limits the upside of oil prices. At the close, NYMEX US WTI crude oil futures contract price rose 1.26% to 68.92 US dollars / barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract closed up 1.78%, reported 75.02 US dollars / barrel.
Foreign media said that the Hussein militia in Yemen fired two ballistic missiles at the Saudi Aramco oil facility in Jazan, southern Saudi Arabia, on Monday. The Saudi official said the missiles were intercepted. According to Yemen’s Al-Masirah TV station, the leader of the Houthi armed group died in a coalition air strike led by Saudi Arabia. The continued tension in the Middle East has caused concern in the crude oil market. Tyler Richey, editor of the Sevens Report, said that the conflict between the Houthi armed forces and Saudi Arabia in the past two weeks has definitely affected the price of crude oil futures, but it has received less attention than the situation in Syria. "Whenever news about Saudi Arabia and military operations occurs, the crude oil market will Be vigilant."
Last week, US President Trump issued a Twitter anger against OPEC artificially raising oil prices, causing oil prices to fall for a short time. In this regard, OPEC Chairman and UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said that OPEC is not artificially raising oil prices, but uniting to achieve the lofty goal of saving the market. Saudi Energy Minister Falih also responded that "there is no such thing as manipulating oil prices." Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, said in a report to clients that although Trump's tweets may have led to some profit-taking, they will not have a lasting impact.
OPEC will hold a policy meeting in June, and investors expect the organization to extend production cuts again at this meeting. However, Iranian Oil Minister Zangane said in a speech that if oil prices can maintain the current upward trend, it is not necessary to extend the production reduction agreement. The market now expects the US to restart Iranian sanctions in May.
At a time when the global stock market bond market has been cold, the commodity market has sprung up, and the most popular of them is crude oil. JPMorgan’s report shows that the sharp rise in oil prices in recent months has been accompanied by large-scale growth in related positions. Among them, hedge funds, speculative investors and retail investors who indirectly through the ETF have contributed to the rise in oil prices.
According to CFTC data, as of April 17, the net long position of WTI crude oil surged 5.9% to 442,408 lots, the highest level in three weeks, and the net short position was reduced by 8.6% to 33,110 lots. Some analysts predict that oil prices will continue to rise and break through $80.
Forex: The US dollar broke through the 91 mark and swept the market.
On Monday, due to the further rise in US bond yields and the US economic data, the US dollar index swept through the market and once broke the 91 mark, the highest since January 18, and closed up 0.67% to 90.92. The latest data from the CFTC shows that the market is further weakening the US dollar, which may lead to squeeze of short positions.
The euro fell below the 1.22 mark in the day and closed down 0.65% to 1.2206. The 10-year German debt and US bond spreads widened to 236 basis points, a 29-year high, and the spread widened or the euro was at risk. The euro zone and major countries announced manufacturing PMI data yesterday. Although the data of Germany and France improved slightly overall, the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in April only recorded 56, a 14-month low, and lowered GDP. The possibility. A key to the Eurozone this week is the ECB's interest rate decision.
GBP/USD fell 0.44% to 1.3938, setting a new low since March 19. In addition to investors' cautious outlook on the rate hike in May, the recent Brexit news is not very profitable. There is still no sign of a breakthrough in the Irish border issue. The UK GDP data will be released later this week. The foreign exchange market is The pound is further falling to prepare. In addition, if the cross-party, non-binding technical vote on Brexit threatens Teresa May's leadership on Thursday, political factors may also affect the pound.
In other currencies, USD/JPY rose 1% to close at 108.70; USD/CHF closed up 0.36% to 0.9781, setting a new high since January 11; NZD/USD plunged 0.83% to 0.7148; AUD/ The dollar closed down 0.86% at 0.7604; the dollar/Canadian dollar rose 0.68% to 1.2847.
(Editor: Fang Fengjiao HF055)
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