BMFN: Overview of Global Economic Analysis

American market

As of 16:30 pm New York time (Beijing time, December 06, 5:30 am), the Standard & Poor's index rose 12.76 points, or 0.58%, to 2204.71 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 45.89 points, or 0.24%, to 19216.31 Point; Nasdaq index rose 53.24 points, or 1.01%, to 5308.89 points.

On Monday, US long-term bond yields were lower in shock trading, as investors believed that after Trump unexpectedly won the election, the massive sell-off in the public debt market was somewhat excessive. Short-term public debt yields rose slightly as the Fed is expected to raise interest rates next week at policy meetings. NNADI yGOLD BER, a strategist at TD Securities in New York, said of the long-term bond yields, "At present, the public debt market is seriously oversold. We have risen above the yield range, and the yield has soared. Now it may be entering the market. good time."

US stocks closed higher and the Dow hit a new high. A number of Fed officials expressed support for a rate hike. Investors generally expect the Fed to raise interest rates at the interest rate meeting held later this month. New York Fed President Dudley said that if the US economy continues to maintain its normal track, he supports a gradual rate hike. St. Louis Fed President James Brad said unemployment and inflation are approaching long-term levels; the St. Louis Fed model shows that it will only raise interest rates until 2019. He believes that if the economy only needs to raise interest rates once, it will reach a neutral interest rate. The unemployment rate and the inflation rate are close to the target, which makes this view reasonable.

The "irrational exuberance" speech warned by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has been 20 years, but after Trump's accidental election, the three major stock indexes of the US stock market hit record highs in the past month, raising concerns about "irrational prosperity." Is the US stock market already overbought? In his speech on December 5, 1996, Greenspan stated that it is clear that the continued low inflation rate implies low uncertainty in the future, and the low risk premium means that US stocks and other assets will rise. This view is strikingly similar to the global deflation and falling interest rates in recent years.

European market

The British Financial Times 100 index rose 16.11 points, or 0.24%, to 6746.83 points; the German DAX index rose 171.48 points, or 1.63%, to 10684.83 points; the French CA C index rose 45.50 points, or 1.00%, to 4,574.32 points.

Bank of England Carney said that the Bank of England only tolerates a period of CPI exceeding the standard, and the tolerance for inflation beyond the target level is limited; raising inflation to 2% within three years will require a rate hike of 100 basis points. Carney further said that the UK economy will continue to maintain steady growth, fiscal tightening is expected to slow down; the cost of fully impacting the impact of the pound on CPI is too high; when the economy enters a recession, the poor are most affected; consumers are optimistic The tension between expectations and market pessimism will be resolved.

On Monday, the Italian stock market fell in shock trading, and its performance lags behind other European stock markets. As the country's constitutional referendum suffered a fiasco, investors' concerns about the country's fragile banking industry were activated. Dylan Ball, the portfolio manager of TempletonGloBA lEquityGroup, said that the result of the constitutional referendum was 'veto' was expected, and investors hedged the worst outcome.

Italian government bond yields rose after the Italian Prime Minister Renzi announced his resignation due to a constitutional referendum, but the sell-off of public debt prices was suppressed, as market expectations may not require an advance election. Investors had previously "rejected" the position for the referendum on Sunday, but there are signs that investors have settled their short positions in Italian assets and the euro, providing some support to the bond market. The euro rebounded from a 21-month low.

Asia Pacific Market

As of 09:50 Beijing time, the Nikkei 225 index was 18468.01 points, up 193.02 points, or 1.06%; the Korea Composite Index was 1985.70 points, up 22.34 points, or 1.14%; the Australian Stock Exchange common stock index was 5436.00 points, up 35.56 points. , an increase of 0.66%. The New Zealand 50 Index reported 6882.11 points, up 27.40 points, or 0.40%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index reported 22,694.27 points, up 188.72 points, or 0.84%.

As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Securities Index reported 3208.84 points; the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index reported 3347.45 points.

FXStreet analyst Mehta said on Monday that the Australian dollar has now recovered to the level of the Italian referendum, which is due to higher commodity prices and the optimistic Chinese service PMI report. Mehta said that the Australian dollar has now recovered some of the lost ground in the Asian period. The Australian dollar staged a solid rebound as commodity prices rose (especially copper prices), and the Australian dollar once broke the 20-day moving average of 0.7441 during the Asian session.

Asian stocks closed, the whole line fell, A shares fell more than 1%. The Italian people vetoed the constitutional amendment bill promoted by the current Prime Minister Renzi. The euro fell by nearly 1.5% against the US dollar, refreshing the new low since March 2015 to 1.0503. Market analysts believe that the results of the Italian referendum may be seen as a sign of the full rise of European anti-institutional forces, and investors' confidence in the euro will be potentially eroded on the eve of the upcoming elections in France and Germany next year. The instability of the world political situation has intensified, dragging down confidence in the global market.

International economic data released today and forthcoming

time

event

importance

The former value

market prediction

result

05:45

New Zealand monthly construction permit monthly rate

low

0.2%

118.6

06:30

Australia last week ANZ Consumer Confidence Index

low

115.4

0.1%

08:00

Annual rate of monthly labor cash income in Japan

in

0.2%

0.2%

0%

Japan's monthly actual cash income annual rate

in

0.9%

1.3%

08:01

UK monthly BRC overall retail sales annual rate

in

2.4%

0.6%

UK monthly BRC same store retail sales annual rate

low

1.7%

1.7%

08:30

Australia's third quarter current account

in

- 15.5 billion Australian dollars

- 13.5 billion Australian dollars

- 11.4 billion Australian dollars

11:30

Australian Monthly Bank Rate Resolution

high

1.5%

1.5%

15:00

German monthly factory order monthly rate (after seasonal adjustment)

low

-0.6%

0.6%

German monthly factory order annual rate (not seasonally adjusted)

low

2.6%

1.6%

16:15

Swiss monthly consumer price index annual rate

in

-0.2%

0.2%

Swiss monthly and consumer price index annual rate

in

-0.3%

Swiss monthly consumer price index monthly rate

low

0.1%

-0.1%

Swiss monthly and consumer price index monthly rate

low

0.1%

16:30

German monthly construction industry purchasing managers index

in

52.9

17:10

Italian Monthly Retail Purchasing Managers Index

in

46.5

Eurozone Monthly Retail Purchasing Managers Index

in

48.6

German Monthly Retail Purchasing Managers Index

in

French monthly retail purchasing managers index

low

47.5

18:00

Eurozone third quarter GDP annual rate final value

high

1.6%

1.6%

Eurozone third quarter GDP quarterly final value

in

0.3%

0.3%

21:30

US Monthly Trade Account

in

- $ 36.4 billion

- 39.6 billion US dollars

US third quarter non-agricultural productivity final value

in

3.1%

3.3%

US third quarter non-agricultural unit labor cost final value

low

0.3%

0.3%

21:30

Canadian Monthly Trade Account

in

-40.8 million Canadian dollars

-20 billion Canadian dollars

New Zealand Monthly GDT Dairy Price Index

low

4.5%

23:00

US monthly durable goods order monthly rate final value

high

4.8%

2.0%

US monthly durable goods order monthly rate final value (except transportation)

in

1%

0.5%

US monthly factory order monthly rate

low

0.3%

2.5%

US monthly factory order monthly rate in addition to transportation

low

0.6%

US Monthly IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

low

51.4

23:00

(Seasonally adjusted), Canada March Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

in

59.7

Financial events

time

country

location

event

03:05

United States

Phoenix city

James Bullard, chairman of the St. Louis Fed, and 2016 FOMC, spoke at the 53rd Economic Forecast Luncheon hosted by Arizona State University's WP Carey School of Business on US economic and monetary policy.

11:30

Australia

Sydney

· The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the interest rate resolution and issued a policy statement.

Central bank interest rate changes

Central bank

Latest interest rate

Ups and downs

Next announcement date

Federal Reserve

0.25-0.5

constant

2016-12-15

European Central Bank

0.00

Fall

2016-12-08

Bank of England

0.25

Fall

2016-12-15

Bank of Japan

-0.1

constant

2016-12-20

Swiss central bank

-1.25%-0.25%

constant

2016-12-15

Bank of Canada

0.50

constant

2016-12-07

Australian Central Bank

1.50

constant

New Zealand Central Bank

1.75

Fall

2017-02-09

EUR/USD

Support level: 1.07236; resistance level: 1.07904

Image source: BMFNUnitrader

GBP/USD

Support level: 1.26926; resistance level: 1.27513

Image source: BMFNUnitrader

AUD/USD

Support level 0.74085; resistance level: 0.74571

Image source: BMFNUnitrader

USD/JPY

Support level 113.352; resistance level: 114.158

Image source: BMFNUnitrader

Gold spot

Support level: 1176.65; resistance level: 1177.16

Image source: BMFNUnitrader

Risk and Disclaimer

Risk Warning: For important trading information, please make careful investment decisions based on your own financial situation and investment objectives. There are certain risks in the foreign exchange market trading market, so before deciding to participate in CFDs or currency trading, please carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level and risk appetite, and do not use all of your funds for this investment. Your past trading performance does not predict future results.

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2016-12-6

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